Target Trial Emulation using routinely collected electronic health records in residential aged care: a methodological pilot for aged care providers and researchers
Date and Time
Wednesday, November 11, 2026
Theme / Track
Health, medical and integrated care
Presentation Format
Poster Presentation
Residential aged care providers frequently implement clinical tools and policies yet rarely evaluate their effectiveness rigorously. Although randomised controlled trials (RCTs) remain the gold standard for causal inference, they are often time intensive, costly and logistically demanding in aged care settings. As granular electronic health records (EHRs) are collected at these sites, Target trial emulation (TTE) offers a rigorous alternative to replicate hypothetical RCTs.
To demonstrate that TTE can replicate approximately similar causal effect estimates of a parallel arm cluster RCT and to illustrate how aged care providers and researchers could use this methodology to evaluate the effectiveness of their care policies.
We used data from 12-month cluster RCT across 21 residential aged care homes evaluating MQ-Dash-a falls predictive dashboard with decision support to prevent falls. Falls per 1,000 resident days were the primary outcome. Utilising EHRs, a target trial was emulated at the dashboard activation date with facilities as the collection units. Facility level covariates were used to derive the inverse probability of treatment weights to balance the intervention and control facilities. Resident level covariates were used as confounders in a weighted Poisson regression to estimate the falls rate ratio with facility treated as clustering units.
Pilot emulation analyses produced effect estimates consistent with RCT findings. Confidence intervals overlapped across facility subgroups, and the direction and magnitude of primary outcome were similar to the RCT trends in both intervention and control facilities.
This study presents how TTE could be used as a practical framework for aged care providers to generate causal evidence using EHRs without performing complex trials.
Keywords
Education and Training, Evidence Based Practice, Falls / Fall Prevention, Integrated Care, Technology
Authors
Nasir Wabe, Centre for Health Systems and Safety Research, Australian Institute of Health Innovation, Macquarie University, North Ryde, New South Wales, Australia
Bayzidur Rahman, Centre for Health Systems and Safety Research, Australian Institute of Health Innovation, Macquarie University, North Ryde, New South Wales, Australia
Ling Li, Centre for Health Systems and Safety Research, Australian Institute of Health Innovation, Macquarie University, North Ryde, New South Wales, Australia
Magda Raban, Centre for Health Systems and Safety Research, Australian Institute of Health Innovation, Macquarie University, North Ryde, New South Wales, Australia
Johanna Westbrook, Centre for Health Systems and Safety Research, Australian Institute of Health Innovation, Macquarie University, North Ryde, New South Wales, Australia