Name
International economic policy uncertainty and capital investment
Date & Time
Tuesday, July 7, 2026, 11:30 AM - 11:55 AM
Description

    We investigate the link between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and capital investment in Australia and consider the possible spillover effect of foreign shocks at both the macro- and micro-level. There is evidence that local EPU has a persistent and negative effect (up to four years) on aggregate fixed investment as well as firm-level investment decisions in Australia. In addition, foreign policy-related uncertainty, especially the one originating from China, is a significant predictor for Australian capital investment. We also find that the effects of EPU are heterogenous cross-sectionally in Australia, being significantly stronger for firms operating in mining industries and firms with a higher degree of investment irreversibility, in accordance with the real options theory. Further analysis indicates that the negative impacts of local and foreign news-based EPU are more profound for smaller size, lower cash-flows, and loss-making firms. The results lend empirical support to the notion that firms operating in Australia, as a relatively small open economy, are likely to face higher levels of external uncertainty shocks than those in large economies.

Cao Hoang Anh Le
Session Chair
Mr Ricky Ke, University of Technology Sydney
Discussant
Dr Suman Neupane, The University of Queensland
Keywords
Capital investment; Policy uncertainty; Australian firms
Theme
CORPORATE FINANCE
Author 1
Cao Hoang Anh Le
Author 2
Yaowen Shan
Author 3
Stephen Taylor