Name
International economic policy uncertainty and capital investment
Date & Time
Tuesday, July 7, 2026, 11:30 AM - 11:55 AM
Description

    We investigate the link between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and capital investment in Australia and consider the possible spillover effect of foreign shocks at both the macro- and micro-level. There is evidence that local EPU has a persistent and negative effect (up to four years) on aggregate fixed investment as well as firm-level investment decisions in Australia. In addition, foreign policy-related uncertainty, especially the one originating from China, is a significant predictor for Australian capital investment. We also find that the effects of EPU are heterogenous cross-sectionally in Australia, being significantly stronger for firms operating in mining industries and firms with a higher degree of investment irreversibility, in accordance with the real options theory. Further analysis indicates that the negative impacts of local and foreign news-based EPU are more profound for smaller size, lower cash-flows, and loss-making firms. The results lend empirical support to the notion that firms operating in Australia, as a relatively small open economy, are likely to face higher levels of external uncertainty shocks than those in large economies.

Cao Hoang Anh Le
Keywords
Capital investment; Policy uncertainty; Australian firms
Theme
CORPORATE FINANCE
Author 1
Cao Hoang Anh Le
Author 2
Yaowen Shan
Author 3
Stephen Taylor