Name
Short Interest and Earnings Predictability
Date & Time
Monday, July 6, 2026, 10:40 AM - 11:05 AM
Description
This paper examines whether short-sellers possess informational advantages regarding firms’ future earnings beyond what is reflected in management guidance and analysts’ forecasts. We provide robust evidence that short interest offers incremental predictive power for future earnings, and this effect is especially pronounced for firms operating in weaker information environments. The informativeness of short interest varies with firm characteristics, being stronger for firms with limited alternative sources of earnings guidance and poorer operating performance. In particular, short-sellers’ predictive ability strengthens when short-sale constraints are more binding. Overall, there is strong evidence that short-sellers play an important informational role in capital markets.
Speakers
Keywords
Short seller, Short sales, Earnings prediction, Management forecast, Analyst forecast
Theme
FINANCIAL ACCOUNTING
Author 1
Chunchi Wu
Author 2
Shu-Ling Wu
Author 3
Wenhan Yang